Despite the Media Narrative, the Ukrainian War & Supply Chains Don't Cause Inflation

Despite the Media Narrative, the Ukrainian War & Supply Chains Don't Cause Inflation

October 20, 2023


Inflation is a hot topic that has recently dominated financial news headlines. For clients of a financial advisor, understanding the underlying causes of inflation is crucial for making informed investment decisions. Contrary to some common misconceptions, the primary driver of inflation is government spending and its direct impact on the money supply. In this blog post, we'll dive into the connection between government spending, interest rates, and inflation, dispelling myths about other factors, such as supply chains and geopolitical events.

The Role of Government Spending

It's essential to grasp that inflation is fundamentally tied to the amount of money circulating in an economy. When the government spends more, it injects money into the economy, increasing the money supply. This, in turn, can lead to inflation. The primary tools the government uses to stimulate or slow down economic activity are fiscal policies, such as tax cuts, increased government expenditure, and borrowing.

Interest Rates and Government Spending

The connection between government spending and interest rates is a crucial one. As the government spends more, it often borrows to fund its projects and programs. Increased borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates. This, in turn, has a cascading effect on various aspects of the economy, particularly on car loans and home mortgages.

When interest rates rise due to government spending, it becomes more expensive for individuals to borrow money for big-ticket items like cars and homes. As a result, demand for these items can decrease, which can have a dampening effect on their prices. It's a classic example of how government spending can affect the interest rates you pay on loans and the costs of large purchases.

Debunking the Supply Chain and Geopolitical Myths

Despite the media's focus on supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events like the Ukraine war, these factors have far less impact on inflation than the money supply. While these events can create temporary shortages and price spikes in specific goods, they do not have a widespread and sustained effect on overall inflation. These disruptions are often transitory and do not fundamentally alter the money supply.

It's All About the Money Supply

Understanding inflation and its relationship to government spending and the money supply is the key takeaway. When the government increases spending, it pumps more money into the economy, which can lead to inflation. The central banks often respond to rising inflation by raising interest rates to cool down economic activity, particularly in sectors like housing and automobiles.

As a client of a financial advisor, it's crucial to remain informed about how government fiscal policies and central bank decisions can impact your investments and financial goals. By recognizing the primary drivers of inflation and interest rates, you can make more informed decisions about your financial future.


Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon, and its causes are often misunderstood. By dispelling myths about the impact of supply chains and geopolitical events on inflation, and emphasizing the central role of government spending in influencing the money supply, you can better appreciate how these economic factors affect your financial well-being. It's always wise to work closely with your financial advisor to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape and make decisions that align with your long-term goals.